Walter Hutchens’ Blog

After lots of teasing, leaks and speculation, official news has now been released concerning the ultra-mobile PC (UMPC) project that Intel, Microsoft and assorted hardware vendors have been working on (codenamed Origami by Microsoft).

My trusted tech adviser James Kendrick posts on the news here, and gadget fetish site Engadget covers the news here (both sites have multiple Origami posts).

I think it will be great if more people own take-virtually-everywhere PCs. I also think it will be great if the Tablet PC flavor of Windows becomes more widely adopted. Either development will bring lots of positive spill-over effects, including increased demand for ubiquitous broadband and 3G networks, more software and accessories for Tablet PCs, and a general stimulus to the trend of people working wherever they want (in coffee shops, on their couches, virtually anywhere).

But I must confess that my overall reaction to UMPCs is: ho-hum.

There are promises of great improvements in battery life and processor speed in future models (not that any of that will be restricted to UMPCs), and there is talk that prices may be well below $1,000. All that sounds great, but the devices that will ship soon are basically little slate-style Tablet PCs.

Thus I’m not sure what the big deal is. In terms of what will ship soon, where is the innovation? There are already some diminutive slate-style Tablet PCs on the market. For example, Motion Computing sells a tiny slate called the LS800. I bought a Sony U over a year ago; it ran the Tablet PC version of Windows.

Some UMPCs will have built-in cameras. That may be great for video conferencing, but as a camera, wouldn’t using a UMPC be like holding a dinner plate up to your face to take what will I imagine be a relatively low res photo? I think I’d prefer to carry a pocket camera or digital SLR.

I’d like a UMPC with a brilliant screen and an enormous hard drive (or EVDO) for looking at photos and perhaps video, but for mobile music or telephony, won’t the iPod and typical mobile phones continue to be more compelling because of their size? To me, these first Origami devices look too big to take everywhere without hesitation in the way I carry a cellphone. If I’d carry a device with a 7″ screen somewhere I’d probably also be willing to carry a laptop there (certainly my Fujitsu P1510).

If I could buy a DualCor cPC (phone, Tablet PC and Windows Mobile device in a single brick), I’d rather have that than a UMPC of the type being shown now at the German CeBIT trade show. If you don’t have a keyboard, why not make the screen even smaller, add a phone and get instant-on capability?

In terms of form factor, I wonder if something the size of a Play Station Portable isn’t preferable to the bigger UMPCs being shown.

Also, from using the Sony U and another slate I found that I strongly prefer a keyboard for virtually all text entry. I’ve also learned that I want my keyboard attached to the CPU and screen, not a separate component that I have to attach, detach and remember to pack. Thus, I think for myself a tiny convertible Tablet PC like the Fujitsu P1510D remains preferable. I’d like a faster 1510 with day-long battery life, EVDO and an even more brilliant screen. But I don’t want a tiny slate with specs similar to the 1510′s.

Ten years ago I had an Apple Newton. It was not as powerful as as these UMPCs will be. It lacked a color screen and built-in wireless networking. But its form factor is reminiscent of these new UMPCs, and the general idea of the Newton was to have a carry-everywhere computer that relied mainly on pen input. For various reasons the Newton didn’t take off. I wonder if UMPCs will be more successful, or if consumers will prefer smart phones as their satellite devices to a main PC. Palm devices outsold Newtons, I recall.

Perhaps students will go for UMPCs. Note-taking is one quintessential student activity. If UMPCs prove handy for note-taking while also being good for email, web surfing and instant messaging, the “vertical” market of students may be where UMPCs are a runaway hit.

Physicians, too. Many of them walk around and scribble a good bit of the day. UMPCs seem ideal for them.

One marketing challenge will be that most people haven’t tried the Tablet version of Windows. When people look at a conventional clamshell style notebook, they know it’s something they can use. It looks like a desktop computer (which resembled a typewriter, easing its adoption). But UMPCs like other Tablet PCs will require some new learning. Tech enthusiasts will relish that, but for many consumers—certainly for many older ones—pen input may not be immediately appealing. When they look at a slate Tablet PC they don’t feel immediately at ease, which is probably one reason convertible Tablet PCs are more common. UMPCs will have to overcome consumer skepticism in ways clamshell style notebooks do not.

I think a ruggedized UMPC would be desirable. Dropping one looks almost inevitable.

Will any UMPC have a PCMCIA card slot? I doubt it, meaning sharing an EVDO card between a UMPC and another laptop probably won’t work.

Price will be critical here. My sense is that prices close to $500 will trigger lots of purchases; prices set at close to $1,000 will trigger lots of passes.